Drowning by Numbers

In my PhD thesis Drowning by Numbers – Social Welfare, Cost-Benefit Analysis and Flood Risk Management (Kind, 2019), I research the application of social cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in the context of natural disasters in general, and floods in particular. I looked into the application and problems of CBAs in the situation that there are large differences in social vulnerability and income (as is the case in developing countries), and in the situation of deep (future) uncertainty. Differences in social vulnerability can be valued by falling back on the social welfare economics with diminishing marginal utility of income, and risk aversion. Uncertainty about the future can be addressed by applying real options analysis (ROA). In my thesis, I describe methods, limitations, challenges and advantages and disadvantages of these methods.

The four most important chapters of my thesis have been published as seperate journal papers. See my list of publications.

Figure: Framework for the valuation fo flood risk, based on social welfare theory (Kind et al., 2020)